For our first 50 years, care costs roughly $3,000 per year. It then rises quickly, reaching nearly $37,000 a year by age 90.

As more Canadians move into their later years, total medical spending grows much faster than population change alone would suggest – a trend confirmed in decades of medical data.

Needing more care as we age is not the problem. Longer lives are something to celebrate.

The real issue is that provinces knew these population pressures were coming for decades — yet successive provincial governments failed to modernize revenue systems to match rising demand.

There was a clear precedent: Ottawa increased Canada Pension Plan premiums by 68% in the 1990s to secure sufficient retirement income for boomers. Provinces did not take similar steps for medical care.

In the mid-1970s, nearly 7 working-age people supported each retiree. Today that ratio is closer to 3. This means fewer taxpayers available to help fund age-related medical costs.

The C.D. Howe Institute estimates aging will add $2 trillion to medical costs by mid-century — and that provinces would have to hike taxes by 16-69% to sustain current commitments.

Our analysis shows younger people are already helping fill the revenue gap, contributing 20–40% more of their taxes to seniors’ care than today’s retirees did at the same age.

Medical care is the largest expense in every provincial budget.

Research by Gen Squeeze shows that population aging is the main driver of rising medical spending. With the share of Canadians over 65 doubling, demand has grown by the equivalent of millions of new patients — far beyond what we’d expect from simple population growth.

These added pressures from population aging are large enough to turn what would otherwise be budget surpluses into persistent deficits.