Call on Provinces to Launch a ‘Better Late Than Never’ Task Force
It’s time for provinces to lead the way on building a fair, realistic plan to fund rising medical costs as Canadians age.
Invest where health begins
Canadians are feeling the strain in our medical system. Wait times are long. Too many can’t find a family doctor. Health workers are burned out. Despite steeply rising costs, access to care doesn't feel like it's keeping up.
We need to be honest about what’s driving these pressures — and it’s not just a shortage of medical professionals.
We knew decades ago that population aging would increase medical costs as Canadians live longer. Yet governments chose not to prepare for this predictable demographic change. Now spending is outpacing revenue, driving up provincial deficits and crowding out investments in the building blocks of healthy societies: safe homes, good incomes, quality child care, education, and healthy environments.
We all need more care as we age, and longer lives are something to celebrate. Delivering this care shouldn’t make us have to chose between treating illness and preventing it.
Canadians need a generationally fair plan to cover rising medical costs — one that protects universal access, safeguards seniors’ dignity, and restores our capacity to invest where health begins.
Join us in calling on provinces to act — better late than never — to design a sustainable, generationally fair financing plan for medical care.
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5 things to know about aging and medical care
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1. Medical costs rise steeply as people age
For our first 50 years, care costs roughly $3,000 per year. It then rises quickly, reaching nearly $37,000 a year by age 90.
As more Canadians move into their later years, total medical spending grows much faster than population change alone would suggest – a trend confirmed in decades of medical data.
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2. We knew our population was aging — yet governments didn’t plan how to pay for it
Needing more care as we age is not the problem. Longer lives are something to celebrate.
The real issue is that provinces knew these population pressures were coming for decades — yet successive provincial governments failed to modernize revenue systems to match rising demand.
There was a clear precedent: Ottawa increased Canada Pension Plan premiums by 68% in the 1990s to secure sufficient retirement income for boomers. Provinces did not take similar steps for medical care.
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3. There are fewer workers to help cover rising medical costs — leaving younger people to pay more
In the mid-1970s, nearly 7 working-age people supported each retiree. Today that ratio is closer to 3. This means fewer taxpayers available to help fund age-related medical costs.
The C.D. Howe Institute estimates aging will add $2 trillion to medical costs by mid-century — and that provinces would have to hike taxes by 16-69% to sustain current commitments.
Our analysis shows younger people are already helping fill the revenue gap, contributing 20–40% more of their taxes to seniors’ care than today’s retirees did at the same age.
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4. Aging is now the biggest pressure on provincial medical care budgets
Medical care is the largest expense in every provincial budget.
Research by Gen Squeeze shows that population aging is the main driver of rising medical spending. With the share of Canadians over 65 doubling, demand has grown by the equivalent of millions of new patients — far beyond what we’d expect from simple population growth.
These added pressures from population aging are large enough to turn what would otherwise be budget surpluses into persistent deficits.
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5. Rising medical costs are squeezing out room in provincial budgets for other essentials — including what keeps people healthy
When budgets struggle to keep pace with medical costs, less money is available for housing, education, child care, income supports, or environmental protection.
These aren’t side issues — they are the building blocks of healthy societies. When governments underinvest in them, younger Canadians face growing affordability pressures and deteriorating wellbeing.
Fixing medical care financing begins with three essential actions
A sustainable and fair way to pay for the medical care our aging loved ones need is within reach — if governments act with honesty and resolve.
For decades, we chose not to prepare for predictable increases in medical costs that accompany population aging. The result is the strain Canadians are feeling today.
There are no quick fixes. But there are clear first steps toward the long-term reforms we need.
Track and rebalance spending between medical care and what creates health
It’s time to make the balance between medical care and what creates health visible — and use it to guide better budgets.
Ask financially secure seniors to keep faith with generations who follow
Canada needs a frank conversation about how to fund medical care sustainably in an aging society.
